The Colts have an opportunity to do something that was once thought as improbable when they started the season 3-5. Going into a win-an-in the playoffs situation, the Colts will face a division opponent in the Houston Texans who are also looking to win and get into the playoffs. The betting odds currently have the Texans as a slight 1-point favorite, but in a game like this with so much at stake, this matchup could go either way.

Before diving into this week 18 matchup, let’s look at the Colts vs Texans week 2 matchup that featured the debut of Minshew Mania.

On the road, in a hostile Houston environment, the Colts jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead and opened the second half leading 31-10. With this cushion, the Colts struggled to keep the momentum going for their offense and only managed 3 points in the second-half. Texans QB CJ Stroud, on the other hand, really showcased what he is capable of as a thrower as he finished the day 30-47 for 384 yds and 2 TDs. Throughout the second half, Stroud was able to pick a part Gus Bradley’s zone defense and the Colts were lucky the game was only 60 minutes.

So, the difference in this game compared to week 2 is that 1). CJ Stroud has continued to develop and grow in the Texans offense and 2). Demeco Ryan’s defense has shown signs of being elite. On the flip side, though, Gardner Minshew has continued to grow in the Colts offense, Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the defense, while young in the secondary, has grown and developed into a solid unit.

In a must win situation for both teams with so much on the line and at stake, the 3 keys for the Colts to come out on top are similar to what made them successful in week 2 (especially in the first half).

Get Pressure on CJ Stroud

In their week 2 meeting, the Colts racked up 6 sacks on Stroud, including a sack-fumble on Houston’s opening drive. Throughout this season, Houston struggled to protect Stroud, but turned a new leaf last week against the Tennessee Titans front seven. Last week, the Houston held up very well, only giving up just 1 sack in a blowout win.

During this season as a whole, Houston ranks 24th in percentage rate of giving up sacks (7.36%). The Colts on the other hand are one of the best defenses that create sacks as they rank 6th in the league in percentage of getting sacks at a 8.29% rate and 5th in total sacks (49). Another element to note with pressure is that it often causes turnovers. CJ Stroud has one of the best interception rates, ranking 2nd in the league but the Colts have a very solid getting takeaways. They currently rank 12th, averaging 1.5 takeaways per game.

Win the Turnover Battle

The Colts won the turnover battle in their first meeting against the Texans as they forced 1 turnover and did not give up a single one of their own. This has been a big key to the success of this team and when the Colts have won the turnover battle, they are (RECORD).

Colts QB Gardner Minshew has been much better, as of late, protecting the football and the Colts as a whole have been more consistent securing the ball on offense. One element of concern, though, is that the Colts have not forced a single turnover in two straight games and if they want a shot at winning on Saturday, they will need either play mistake free on offense/defense or create turnovers on defense.

Houston has been one of the best teams in terms of protecting the football, so winning the turnover battle in this game will be very difficult for the Colts. With a rookie QB, the Texans rank 4th in overall turnover margin (+0.6), 1st in giveaways per game (0.9), and 2nd in interception % rate (1.41%). The bottom line is that Houston usually does not shoot itself in the foot and play sloppy football. The Colts, on the other hand, have been prone to do that, especially early on, so the assignment is simple – Create turnovers on defense and protect the football on offense.

Run the Football

The Houston Texans shut down all-pro and future Hall of Fame RB Derrick Henry last week as he only mustered 12 carries for 42 yards. Over the last 4 games, the Texans have given up an average of only 63 yards rushing per game. For a Colts team that relies so much on play action and RPOs, having success on the ground is critical.

In their week 2 matchup in which Zack Moss started at RB, Moss racked up 88 yards on 18 carries and the Colts as a whole put up 126 yards on the ground. A case could be made that the rushing success was due in large part to Anthony Richardson who, in the first half, was healthy and put up 35 yards on the ground and 2 TDs. Gardner Minshew is nowhere near the runner that Richardson is, but Minshew can be elusive in the pocket and create plays out in space with his legs or with his arm. Houston’s defense against the pass has been middle of the pack or worse in many major categories, but the Colts do not want to rely on Minshew throwing 40+ times as he has proven to be a bit reckless with the football.

The Final Down

The game is one of the biggest toss up matchups yet as in a do-or-die, win-and-get-in situation, anything can happen. Per a report, Shane Steichen announced that no players have been ruled OUT for week 18 which is huge for a game of this magnitude. Houston has several players listed on their injury report for Wednesday, but no game decisions at this time.

There will be no game score prediction for this matchup. We’ll see how things play out this weekend. If the Colts lose, they are officially out of playoff contention, if they win, they take a wild card spot, if they win and the Jaguars lose, they will take the AFC South title. There are many things at stake during this game.