The Indianapolis Colts will play three division games within the next five weeks. However, this weekend might be the game that decides the AFC South.

The Colts face the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday on the road, and the playoff implications with this game are huge. For starters, the Colts are tied with the Jaguars for the division lead but due to their conference records, the Jaguars are the current leaders. Winning this game would put the Colts in a commanding one-game lead and the Texans play on Sunday night against the, ever formidable, Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts could very well leave the weekend two games clear of the Texans and one game clear (and a tie-breaker) of the Jaguars.

It does need to be noted that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014. All steaks, good or bad, come to an end at some point. However, this particular losing streak has been a gut wrench to the Colts for a decade. Will this weekend finally be the year this streak ends? In order to make this happen, here are three keys to a Colts victory.

Three Keys to a Colts Victory in Week 14

Disrupting Trevor Lawrence

Through 13 weeks, Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 32 times, which ties the amount he had through 17 games as a rookie and is three shy of what he sustained in 16 games in 2023. Needless to say, the protection around Lawrence has been less than stellar. To add to this, Lawrence is only completing 59% of his passes which ranks 30th in the league.

If the Colts can get pressure on Lawrence, they will have a good chance to win this game and make a statement. One of the ways that defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, calls his defense is with a lot of man-coverage. With so much talent at the cornerback position, the Colts can afford to bring blitz packages and win one-on-one. This is bad news for Trevor Lawrence. His completion percentage against man is just 50%, and his catchable pass rate is only 59%. Needless to say, Lawrence struggles against man-coverage and that is what the Colts have done very well this year.

It does need to pointed out that the Colts’ top cornerback, Sauce Gardner, will miss a couple of weeks due to a calf strain. He will certainly miss this weekend, but the hope is that Charvarius Ward will step up. So far, he has not played up to his standard and the Colts will need to play better on Sunday. That will be crucial to the defense’s success.

Running the Ball

This is pretty straightforward. The Colts win games when Jonathan Taylor is involved. When Taylor scores a touchdown, the Colts are 7-0. Through much of this season, Taylor was in the MVP conversation and was on pace to shatter franchise records. Needless to say, the talent that Taylor has must be utilized to the utmost degree every single week. Daniel Jones is a good quarterback, but he needs the support of his star running back.

Instilling Confidence on Special Teams

One of the bigger news to come out of the Colts this week comes on special teams. After missing, what ended up being, a crucial extra point, the Colts parted ways with their placekicker Michael Badgley. Upon waiving Badgley, the Colts signed Blake Grupe, who is not really an upgrade from Badgley. The good news is that Grupe has not missed an extra point this year. However, his career kicking percentage is 79% and in 2025, he was kicking at a mere 69%. His long range is extremely unreliable and his mid-range is less than stellar.

Overall, the Colts will need a good showing from Grupe, if he indeed starts on Sunday. Having a reliable kicker instills confidence in an offense. The Colts offense has been shaky the last two weeks. Thus, they need all the confidence they can get.