As the 2023 NFL season is nearing its end, urgency is surging through many teams around the league. Most notably, that sense of urgency is permeating through two teams that will face off in week 17. Both the Colts and Raiders are fighting for their playoff lives and with a win on Sunday, their hopes of making the playoffs get closer. The path for the Colts is a relatively smooth road as they just need to win-to-get-in. The Raiders, on the other hand, need to win out and get help from several other teams in order to get in.
The bottom line, though, is that this game is a must-win for both teams, but there can only be one winner. The Raiders are coming off an impressive defensive performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas day while the Colts are coming off a terrible team performance against the Atlanta Falcons. So, what do the Colts have going for them coming off a tough loss and having a major sense of urgency to finish the season strong?
The Colts Are Getting Healthy at the Right Time
For the majority of this season, RT Braden Smith has been on the injury report and going into week 17, he has only 8 starts this season. On Thursday’s practice report, though, Smith was listed as a full-participant for the second straight day, and barring some kind of setback, he is expected to start at right tackle. This is huge for Indy as they have been relatively inconsistent with pass blocking and primarily that inconsistency has come on the right side.
Other good news is that WR Michael Pittman Jr. was a full participant in practice for the second straight day after having a setback last week with a concussion. Unfortunately for Pittman, his status for game time will still be undecided as concussions are a closely monitored injury. Nonetheless, if Pittman clears protocol and does not have any setbacks, we can expect to see him suit up for the Colts this weekend which is huge for this offense.
It should also be noted that Safety Julian Blackmon is out for the remainder of the regular season, though there is a chance he could return should the Colts make a deep run into the playoffs. To combat this tough news, the Colts signed Safety Henry Black from the Pittsburgh Steelers practice squad.
The Colts Still Have a Dynamic Weapon in Jonathan Taylor
Though underutilized last week, one of the Colts’ most important aspects is their running attack. With RB Zack Moss still limited at practice with a forearm injury, the Colts will look to all-pro RB Jonathan Taylor and 3-year back from Ohio State Trey Sermon. Last week, Jonathan Taylor was underutilized in large part due to the deficit, so if the Colts can get him involved in the offense early and often, good things happen. In the games where he has played at full strength, Taylor is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with an average of 17 rushes per game and 70 yards per game. While these numbers are certainly low for a high-paid back, the level of efficiency that he brings when he touches the football is still very impactful.
One of the more baffling statistics for this Colts offense is their percentage of runs. Right now, the Colts only rush the football about 42% of the time. For a team with a backup QB and young wide receivers, it would seem obvious to run the football more, especially with an all-pro back like Taylor. This is not to say anything negative about Shane Steichen’s offense, but rather to stress the important of running the ball. 1). It provides lanes for the passing game, 2). It opens up windows for play-action, and 3). It keeps defenses on the field and controls time of possession. One thing to expect from the Colts offense this Sunday is a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon (or Zack Moss, if healthy).
The Colts’ Defense has Been a Major Force of Inconsistency
There is a saying in the league that, “defenses win championships” and while this saying has proven to be true, the Colts’ defense is not quite ready live up to that saying. Throughout this season, the Colts have been in the middle of the pack in major defensive categories, however they have surprised in sacks (#5 in the league at 47) and total turnovers (Tied for #3 with 24). That being said, if the sacks and turnovers don’t come, this defense tends to crumble.
In the 4 games where the Colts have 2 sacks or fewer and 1 turnover or fewer, the defense gives up an average of 32.5 points per game. It should also be noted that there were 2 back-to-back games in which the Colts lost the turnover battle and only had 3 sacks or fewer. In these games, the defense gave up a combined 76 points to the Jaguars and Browns. It should also be noted that all 6 of these games mentioned, were losses.
Needless to say, the Colts need finesse in order to be a prolific defense that stops high-powered offenses. Unfortunately, this Gus Bradley squad just does not seem to be able to hold its own without sacks and turnovers. If this team wants to make it to the playoffs and have a shot to win a game or two in the playoffs, they will need to learn to play defense on scheme and execution. In 2023 so far, they have shown no signs of being able to do that consistently.
The Final Down
The path for the Colts to make the playoffs is simple – win these last two games and they’re in. Now, it should be noted that in 2021, the Colts found themselves in a similar situation with two games remaining, though, their path to the playoffs was to win one of the final two. The Colts would end up losing both games (to the Raiders at home and Jaguars on the road) and missing the playoffs altogether. Even with a new era in Indy, there is always that bad taste in one’s mouth from the wounds of the past. We’ll see how the Colts respond to the challenge ahead and if they are taking the sense of urgency to win seriously.
The Colts play the Las Vegas Raiders at home on Sunday (12/31) @ 1PM EST.
The Lucky Colt 
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