After a tough blowout loss to a struggling Atlanta Falcons team, the Colts still find themselves in the #7 seed and in control of their path to the playoffs. The frustrating thing for Indy is that they had a great opportunity to move up into the #4 spot as a division leader with the Jacksonville Jaguars losing and the Houston Texans losing. That being said, there are so many developing stories around the AFC South with the Jags QB Trevor Lawrence sustaining another injury and the Colts’ week 18 matchup against the Houston Texans.
It is easy to be a prisoner of the moment and look at the “what ifs” of a situation, but the bottom line is that the Colts and everyone else in the AFC South lost on Sunday, the Colts still have a shot to make the playoffs, and they still have a legitimate shot to even win the division. However, for any of these feats to be achieved, Indy will need to win out against the Raiders and Texans.
Obviously, to say that a team needs to win out is easier than to actually do it. Both games that the Colts have left will not be easy and if they want any hope of making the playoffs, they cannot duplicate their pathetic performance on Sunday.
Here are 3 keys for the Colts to win out this year:
Run the Ball to Set up the Pass
A common denominator for Indy in losses has been a lack of efficiency running the football. On Sunday, the Colts had star RB Jonathan Taylor return from a thumb injury but coupling his talent with Steichen’s scheme did not merit any efficiency. The Colts ended the day against the Falcons by rushing for 92 total yards with a 3.7 average. Jonathan Taylor would end the day with 18 carries for 43 yards and 1 TD.
The bread and butter of this Colts offense is running the football and it is with the run, that passing lanes get open for QB Gardner Minshew. Last week against the Steelers, the Colts dominated and it was largely due to their efficiency running the ball. The Colts would end that game by posting 170 yards rushing with a 5.0 average. That type of number is not something to expect from the Colts every week, but anything over 100 yards on the ground with at least a 4.0 average will be significant for this offense.
Getting After the QB & Creating Turnovers on the Defense
On Sunday against the Falcons, the Colts did not manage to force a single turnover as the Falcons managed an average of 40 yards per drive, while also rushing for 177, and a 6.3 average on yards per play. Even though Indy was solid on third down defensively (5/13), it was the explosive play ability in both rushing and passing that killed the zone defense that Gus bradley likes to run. (Many of these explosive plays came on first and second down).
Across the numbers, the Colts defense is a very shaky middle-of-the-pack unit. However, the main reason they can appear dominant and create so many opportunities for their offense is the pass rush, which creates turnovers. On Sunday, the Colts managed 1 sack early in the first quarter and managed little-to-no pass rush which in tern allowed for Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke to survey and carve up the Colts zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley does not blitz a lot which at times has been questionable when 4 men cannot get to the quarterback. Needless to say, the recipe for this defense’s success is pressure up front.
Shore Up the Right Side of the Offensive Line
The right side of the Colts line has been banged up all season and most notably, veteran RT Braden Smith, who has struggled with injuries. While there is upside to rookie RT Blake Freeland, he has struggled many times and it has proven costly for QB Gardner Minshew to have time in the pocket. Keep in mind, though, Freeland has had some very good games, particularly in week 15 against the Steelers as he held his own against all-pro TJ Watt; it’s the inconsistencies on the right side that has been the concern and the edge is always the most important parts of the line.
The Final Down
As mentioned before, it is easy to be a prisoner of the moment and assume that this lackluster offensive and defensive performance is a tell-tale of how the team will perform in these last two games. If there is one thing about the NFL, it is “any given Sunday”. Over the last 3-games, the Colts have laid 2 eggs against the Bengals and the Falcons. The good thing that has come from this holiday weekend is that the Colts still sit in the #7 seed and control their path to the playoffs. All they have to do is win these last two games.
The Colts will finish the 2023 season at home against the Raiders in week 17 and the Texans in week 18.
The Lucky Colt 
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