The Colts host the New Orleans Saints at home and both teams have a 3-4 record and are on a 2-game losing streak. While almost every game is a must-win, both of these teams are desperate for a win to maintain a legitimate shot at the playoffs. According to The New York Times playoff calculator, if the Colts lose on Sunday, their probability of going to the playoffs drops significantly from about 26% (if they win and go to 4-4) to about 12% (if they lose and go to 3-5).

The Colts are 1-point underdogs this week at home and these teams pose polar opposite struggles. The Saints have been wildly inconsistent on offense efficiency the past several weeks and the Colts have been efficient offensively but have struggled to protect the football. Keeping in mind the capability of the Saints, we’ll look at what the Colts have coming up and what they need to do in order get to back to 500.

Being Efficient on Offense

For the second straight week, the Colts will face a top-tier defense in the New Orleans Saints who rank top 10 in almost every defensive category.

Once again this Colts offense will have their hands full against a great defense. Last week, Gardner Minshew led this team to 38 points on the #1 defense in the Cleveland Browns. Duplicating that kind of success is really difficult in this league, but if one team with one particular head coach can pull of another upset, it will be the Colts and Shane Steichen.

Jonathan Taylor had his best day last week since coming off the PUP list. He ran for 75 yards on 18 attempts, 1 TD, and a 4.2 average. Rookie sensation, Josh Downs had his best day last week with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 125 yards and 1 TD. The Colts leading receiver, Michael Pittman Jr. had another productive day with 2 receptions, but 83 yards and 1 TD. Lastly, Alec Pierce, who has had a very slow start this season, had his best as well last week with 3 receptions for 53 yards. He is still looking for his first TD this season, but the point that is to be made is that the Colts are not short on offensive playmakers.

Once again, Shane Steichen will need to get creative in utilizing these playmakers on all sides of the field, but the main component for the Colts this season is to run the football. If they can establish the run and keep the defense on their heels, this offense is hard to beat.

Protecting the Football

Gardner Minshew has been responsible for giving the ball away 8 times over the last two games. One of the main reasons why the Colts fell 1-point short against the Browns last week was due to the careless turnovers one of which was a sack-fumble in the end zone.

It is unmistakable that teams who can win the turnover battle, meaning that they force turnovers more than they give away turnovers, win football games. The Colts are currently on a trajectory to end the year on the negative side of the turnover battle and therefore, it is inevitable that they will end the year with a losing record. As mentioned at the beginning, the Colts are not out of the playoff picture and still have a reasonable chance if they win this weekend, but they must minimize the turnovers and it starts with Gardner Minshew.

Putting Pressure on Derek Carr

Saints QB Derek Carr had a very promising first few seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders but when things went sour, he was traded to New Orleans this offseason. So far, Carr has had a modest season with 6 TDs and 4 INTs through 7 games. He has completed 63% of his passes for 1600 yards, but the inconsistencies with this offense is what had crippled the Saints. Defensively, the Saints have been able to hold up, but offensively they have struggled and it starts with Derek Carr.

This Colts defense has the opportunity to exploit this offense and even though they give up 27.3 points per game, they have been playing much better than that statistic would indicate. The 8 turnovers, over the last two games, that the offense has produced has put this defense in horrible positions to where opposing offenses begin a series already in scoring position. It is easy to look at the points/game stat and think this defense is one of the worst, but in further analyzing the bigger picture, the blitzing packages have created sacks, forced untimely throws, and turnovers.

The Colts run a zone-style defense that does not blitz very often, but when they do blitz, they typically get home. Derek Carr is fairly mediocre vs zone defense as he is ranked 33rd in completion percentage (59.3%) and 34th in passer rating (71.3). The Colts also have been very good at getting off the field on 3rd down (#8 in the league) and the Saints are 26th in the league in converting 3rd downs.

The Final Down

Even though the Colts are 1-point underdogs, on paper this looks like a good matchup for the defense. However, also on paper, it looks like a bad matchup for the offense. We’ve seen the Colts completely destroy the #1 defense last week, so the question is whether or not that can do it again against the Saints defense. Based on how the Saints offense has been playing, the Colts should not need to put up 30+ points and 4+ TDs in this game, but the offense will be the key – They will need to minimize turnovers (for sure), but also maintain their efficiency in moving the ball down the field.

Saints – 23

Colts – 27