The much anticipated and expected news broke on Wednesday that Anthony Richardson will have season-ending shoulder surgery to repair an AC joint sprain he sustained in week 5 against the Titans. This means that the veteran, Gardner Minshew, will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year. Coming off of the worst performance of his career, Minshew will need to rebound quickly to get ready to face the Cleveland Browns who are coming off an upset victory against the 49ers last week.

The Cleveland Browns pose a few issues for the Colts in terms of their defensive front led by DE Myles Garrett and their offensive weapons on the outside. The main thing that is still up in the air with this matchup is whether or not QB Deshaun Watson will be healthy enough to play for the Browns. He missed last week due to a shoulder injury and did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but did participate on Friday. Browns backup QB P.J Walker suited up for Cleveland last week and although his efforts resulted in a win, his overall performance was less than stellar. He threw for a modest 192 yards on 34 attempts with 18 completions. He did not have any touchdowns and had 2 interceptions.

The Browns went into this week at 3-point favorites but that will be very contingent on which quarterback plays for Cleveland. Deshaun Watson, although having a slow start to the season, is still a dual-threat QB who is an issue for defenses. However, whether PJ Walker or Deshaun Watson play, here are 3 keys to the game and these 3 keys will help the Colts get a much needed win this Sunday.

Win the Turnover Battle

One of the keys to the Colts loss last weekend at Jacksonville was their inability to minimize turnovers and create turnovers of their own. Indy finished the day -3 on the turnover margin and if they have any hopes of winning any more games this season, they will have to clean that up.

First and foremost, it starts with the quarterback. With the news that Anthony Richardson is out for the season, this team belongs to Gardner Minshew now and if he wants to bounce back from a miserable start last week, he will have to minimize the turnovers. One key issue for Minshew was his inability to throw the ball down the field and this lead to several errant throws forced into coverage. He is not a high-powered 300-yard per game type of quarterback, but when he is methodical and smart with the ball, good things happen for this offense.

In order to help the offense, though, the defense will need to create turnovers and put the offense in plus-territory or even provide just good field position. As already mentioned on so many other articles, this defense is what is going to carry this team to success. Through the first 6 weeks, the Colts rank 14th in TO margin with an an equal amount of forced turnovers and committed turnovers. Minshew is not going to throw this team to victory, but he can manage the game. The defense will need to step up this weekend and put the Colts on the plus side of the turnover margin.

Capitalize on 3rd Down and the Red Zone

The Colts rank around the middle of the pack in terms of converting on 3rd downs (#18) and converting in the red zone (#17). They have managed almost 3 TDs per game which ranks 10th in the league, but the issue is when the field gets smaller, they struggle to cash in.

The good news, though, is that the Browns only average about 2 TDs a game, and their 3rd down conversion rate ranks 31st in the league. The Colts defense has an opportunity to exploit these weaknesses as they rank 12th in allowing opponents to convert third downs (37.5%). That being said, they also rank 21st against defending the red zone.

Commit to and Establish the Run

In 3 of the Colts losses this season, they have struggled to run the football. In those losses, they have averaged 47 yards from the RBs with a 2.7 average. Those poor performances were exploited twice by the Jaguars strong front seven and the Rams. The Browns pose a very similar level of talent at the line as the Jags and Rams. The Browns rank 4th in yards per rush (3.5), 3rd in yards per game (79), and 2nd in sack percentage (10.14%).

The Colts offensive line will certainly have its hands full, but the Colts must commit to the run. Gardner Minshew is not a gunslinger or a quarterback who is able to keep throwing 50+ times each game. In order for them to have offensive success this weekend, they must run the ball to utilize play-action and the RPO game to its full potential.

The Final Down

The Browns have one of the best defensive lines in the league led by Myles Garrett and they do not have many holes in the secondary. They are ranked 1st against opponents’ pass percentage (51.88%) and passing yards per game (121.4). To make matters worse, they are 2nd in yards per pass (4.6) and for a Colts team that is already struggling to throw down the field, this task will be almost improbable to overcome. The good news for the Colts, though, is that their defense has shown that it can stop the run and the Browns have not been good at all passing and converting TDs. This defensive battle will come down to which offense makes the least amount of mistakes and which offense puts together the TD drive to seal the win.

Browns – 16

Colts – 13

The Colts will play the New Orleans Saints at home next week (10/29).