The Colts opened the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home and ended up losing 31-21 in a hard fought battle. In this game, Colts fans saw a glimpse of what would ensue with the health of Anthony Richardson. Late in the 4th quarter after the game was practically decided, Richardson left with an apparent head injury and Gardner Minshew ended up finishing the game.

That was week 1. Flash forward to week 6 and it will be Gardner Minshew as QB1 on the road against the Jaguars with Anthony Richardson sidelined for at least 4 weeks with an AC joint sprain. To add to the changes on offense, it should also be noted that RB Jonathan Taylor, who came off the PUP list last week, is listed as RB1 on the unofficial depth chart ahead of Zack Moss and Trey Sermon. Also to note, Kwity Paye (concussion), Bernhard Raimann (concussion), and Shaquille Leonard (groin) all had a full practice on Wednesday and Thursday and will likely continue that trend unless a setback happens. With these reports, it is likely that all three will play this Sunday.

In light of all of these recent developments, this Colts team will look very different this weekend compared to their week 1 matchup against Jacksonville. If the Colts want to win this game and be the sole leader of the AFC South, there are three areas that need to be shored up.

Containing the Jaguars’ Big Play Ability

Doug Peterson does not call an offense that slings the football around 40+ times and relies on big plays. This offense is very methodical yet aggressive, having the element of big plays to throw the defense off guard. Jacksonville added former Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley this offseason and so far he is off to an inconsistent start. He exploded in the first half of week 1 and finished the game with over 100 receiving yards. The following weeks, he would post 32, 40, and 38 yard games before exploding last week against Buffalo with 122 yards.

The main thing to point out is that Ridley can be contained. That being said, though, the Jaguars still have WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, and RB Travis Etienne. These pass catchers along with Ridley combine for over 1,000 yards through 5 weeks which is pretty impressive for an offense that has had its struggles this season. If you give Jaguars head coach Doug Peterson and Trevor Lawrence an inch, they can take a mile, so keeping these weapons in front of them and limiting Etienne with their elite front seven will be crucial.

Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss Duo

RB Zack Moss has been one of the biggest surprises on this offense as he has already accumulated 445 yards rushing in only 4 starts. Coming off a 165-yard rushing game against Tennessee, it can easy to overlook all-pro RB Jonathan Taylor and the production that he had (albeit on a much smaller level). Taylor looked smooth running the football and maintained a small 3.0 rushing average last week with one catch for 16 yards. It is expected for him to get more touches, but it is also expected that Moss will get his fair share of snaps as well.

The Jaguars rank right at the top against the run. They are 10th in yards per rush (3.7) and 5th in rush yards per game (81.6). In their week 1 meeting, the Colts could not get any positive yards rushing and left the offense is many 3rd and long situations. However, in week 1, the Colts were without Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor. Still, though, this Jaguars defense will be tough to run against. It should also be noted that this is the same argument made for Tennessee last week as they have an elite front seven, but the Colts ran all over them.

With Taylor expected to be the primary back on Sunday, here is a look at his career stats against the Jaguars. For the most part, he has always found success.

Gardner Minshew Coming Back to the City that Drafted Him

For the first time since being traded to Philadelphia, Gardner Minshew travels to Jacksonville, FL to play against his old team. This certainly has the making of a revenge game for Minshew as he brought a lot of buzz to Jacksonville and really got the home crowd excited with “Minshew Mania”. Unfortunately, Minshew just couldn’t win enough games as a young quarterback and when Trevor Lawrence was drafted #1 overall, Minshew was shipped out.

It’s probably safe to say that Minshew believes he was a bit cheated when the Jaguars moved on so quickly to Trevor Lawrence (who would inevitably bring the Jags to the #1 overall pick the next year). Nonetheless, this game will be his chance to stick it back to Jacksonville and show them that they made a grave mistake. It is no question that Minshew has played fantastic for the Colts so far and if he can just maintain the consistency that he has already shown, the offense will be just fine.

The Final Down

The Colts have lost 8 straight road games to the Jaguars which is very dismal, but all streaks have to end at some point. The Colts would love to end that streak and the Jaguars would love to keep it going. Putting aside this looming losing streak, the Colts are one of the better running teams going up against one of the better run defenses. The Colts secondary has had moments of weakness and they will have to face three very high-powered receivers in Ridley, Kirk, and Engram. The Colts have one of the better front sevens in the league, but the Jaguars have Etienne, who is doing both catching and rushing at a high level. Lastly, the Colts have the epitome of consistency in QB Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars have a very inconsistent QB this season in Trevor Lawrence.

This game will be tough for both teams as all division games typically are. The Colts currently sit as 4.5-point underdogs and that is probably how things will play out. This game will be close until the very end, the defense will make plays, but ultimately they will not make enough plays to help the offense, and the Jaguars will come out on top.

Gardner Minshew is a good quarterback and he has shown that he can make crucial conversions, stay poised, and make plays when his offense needs him to. I’m just not quite comfortable with our young defense being able to stop a Jaguar team that, when playing as they should, is explosive and tough to stop on 3rd down.

Colts – 23

Jaguars – 27

The Colts will play the Cleveland Browns at home on October 22nd. This game will feature the new “Indiana Nights” jerseys.