This weekend’s matchup against the Rams will be a polar opposite matchup from the previous week. The Ravens were a run-heavy team that relied on winning at the line of scrimmage and occasionally taking shots down the field. The Rams, on the other hand, are a pass-dominant team that only run the football when needed.

One thing about the Rams, though, is their major inconsistencies on the offense. QB Matthew Stafford is arguably a future Hall of Famer and on paper, they appear to have all of the tools to be a juggernaut. Unfortunately for them, those elements are not showcased in games on a consistent basis. That being said, the Colts are only a 1-point favorite and will look to be at 3-1 as they prepare for back-to-back division games.

Before I get into any predictions, let’s look at three key individual players who will need to step up in order to help the Colts get the victory.

Anthony Richardson will start in week 4

The key to winning most games is quarterback play. Richardson cleared the concussion protocol earlier today and will face a defense led by all-pro and defensive player of the year Aaron Donald. The Rams defense ranks around the middle of the pack in major defensive categories. They are 13th in points/game (20.7), 20th in red zone scoring (62.5%), and 2nd in third down percentage (25.71%). They have not forced many turnovers this season and have not had many sacks. Two categories that really propel a defense to greatness.

This is not to shrug off the Rams defense for being weak, but it certainly is worth noting that this defense has plenty of holes, especially in the secondary. Like the Colts themselves, the Rams are young at corner and safety. Can the Colts rookie QB take advantage of this and get some deep shots to Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr.? That still remains to be seen and the game plan for Richardson so far has been to take what the defense gives. So far, Richardson has been successful with that, but we’ll see if he can complete some deep balls.

Blake Freeland to make his NFL debut on Sunday

It was announced earlier today that 2nd year LT Bernhard Raimann was in concussion protocol. What this means is that he will not play this weekend and rookie LT Blake Freeland who was drafted in the 4th round will get the start at Richardson’s blindside.

As mentioned previously, Aaron Donald is still a formidable defensive tackle that will demand attention from the offensive line. If the Rams are wise, they will try and line Donald up against Freeland as much as possible. If the Colts are wise, they will use all-pro LG Quentin Nelson as a double team or an RB or TE to help chip. Regardless, the Colts have holes in one of the most key aspects of a football team – the offensive line. (Team captain C Ryan Kelly is still out with a concussion as well).

It will certainly be an eventful debut for the rookie Freeland. Either he will have a fantastic day against one of the league’s best or get eaten alive by one of the league’s best. Either way, it will be a story to note. I will end with this, though, Chris Ballard has already proven that he knows how to spot good offensive linemen in the draft. We’ll see if Freeland can continue to validate that.

Where is Shaq Leonard?

There has been a lot of buzz around LB Zaire Franklin and for good reason. Franklin came off a historic season in 2022 and he is picking right off where he left. All-pro LB Shaquille Leonard on the other hand is off to a very slow start coming off an injury-laden 2022 season.

Through 3 games, Leonard only has 18 tackles and 8 solo tackles. There have not been any reports that his nerve injury is bothering him, but it is obvious that he is not the same “maniac” that he once was. This being said, the Colts have not missed a beat on defense already putting up eye-popping numbers – 23 Tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and 7 forced fumbles. All ranks within the top 2. The key to the Colts having two consecutive high-powered defensive performances will be the “maniac” Shaquille Leonard coming to life and firing up this defense to make plays. We’ve seen him do it before, so we know that he can do it again.

For more on the Colts defense and the matchup against the Rams offense, check out the previous post – The Colts Defense is on Track to Be Elite.

The Rams have two very good receivers and just extended their TE Tyler Higbee. As mentioned previously, this Rams offense is inconsistent. Stafford can beat you down the field, but can also force the ball when under pressure. The Rams do not run the football much at all and therefore never control time of possession. This game will be field goal heavy, but the Colts will ultimately get the victory.

Week 4 Prediction:

Rams – 22

Colts – 26