The Colts travel over to Baltimore, Maryland to face the Ravens who are led by explosive dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. With starting QB Anthony Richardson ruled out this week, Gardner Minshew will have to step up and lead this offense. For the Colts defense, this matchup is going to be tough going against this Ravens offense. As will be a theme throughout this season, it will come down to the defense making plays to keep games close.

Along with Richardson being ruled out, veteran center Ryan Kelly is also ruled out with a concussion. Injuries happen in the NFL and ultimately, the teams that can keep operating comparably without key pieces are the the teams that typically contend for a Super Bowls. Obviously, the Colts (this season) have a long way to go to get to that level, but having this type of adversity and still playing well will bode long-term confidence.

The Colts have not beaten the Ravens since 2014 and have not beaten them in Baltimore since 2009. While all steaks must come to an end, this one is going to be a tough one to break. However, if the Colts are going to pull an upset this Sunday, there are three key players that will need to be at peak performance.

Zack Moss

With Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP list, it is Zack Moss at RB1 and he played very well last week against a Texans defense. He had 18 attempts for 88 yards (4.8 avg.) and really ignited this offense to consistency in that first half. The Colts will need Moss to do the same this week and some. The Ravens are 6th best against the run and have yet to allow a rushing TD this season.

Let’s keep in mind that this defense held Bengals RB Joe Mixon to 59 yards and Texans rising star RB Damien Pierce to 38 yards. Head coach Shane Steichen is going to have to get creative with how he utilizes the running game, especially if Anthony Richardson is not healthy enough to start.

Gardner Minshew

With Anthony Richardson ruled out for this week, Gardner Minshew II will step in as the starter for week 3. Throughout his career, Minshew has played as a prototype game manager as he rarely makes dumb mistakes. He plays conservatively which is boring to watch, but it can be very efficient if the defense has holes. The Ravens rank 7th through two games in yards allowed per game, 7th in points allowed per game, and 5th in red zone TD% (33.3). The defense, though, has struggled with getting off the field of third down. They rank 5th worst giving up 51%. This being said, the Colts did not convert a single third down in the second half against the Texans, going 0-4.

If the Colts want to keep Lamar Jackson on the sidelines, Minshew will need to limit mistakes, extend drives, and convert in the red zone.

The Cornerbacks

The secondary has been the biggest concern this season and it only gets more concerning when top CB Kenny Moore II did not practice Wednesday and Thursday due to a knee injury. Already dealing with inexperience across the cornerback room, it will be tough for Darrell Baker Jr. who had a bad day against Houston, rookie Jaylon Jones, Dallis Flowers who is in his second year, and Tony Brown has also had minimal experience.

Lamar Jackson will be the most explosive QB this defense has faced so far and the one thing this Ravens offense does well is run the football. The reason I bring up the secondary is because of the explosive throws that Jackson had hit off play action. If the secondary is not locked on their receivers, this game could get out of hand quickly.

The defensive front has been the best feature on the Colts defense, and the one friend to a struggling secondary is pass rush and run stuffs. The Colts were able to get pressure against a beat-up Texans OL, but the Ravens are a different beast as they can utilize the run creatively and create explosive plays through play-action and RPO.

As mentioned at the beginning, if the Colts want a shot to pull the upset, this defense will have to step up by creating turnovers, getting pressure on Lamar, and minimizing explosive plays. The offense will have to be efficient in minimizing turnovers, running the football, and extending drives.

Unfortunately, though, demanding perfection is hard to do in an entire football game and the Colts will have to be perfect in all three phases if they hope to win this weekend. This game will feature long possessions and tired defenses and both starting quarterbacks will be under 220 passing as the run with be the feature.

Week 3 Prediction:

Colts – 16

Ravens – 27

The Colts will play the Los Angeles Rams next week (10/1) at home.