One of the more exciting aspects of football are the division games as it is very seldom that one get the outcome he expects. The Colts have won six straight home games against the Jags but have lost eight straight road games against the Jags. A tale of two home teams is certainly a way to describe these division matchups but another aspect to note is that the Colts have not won a season opener since 2013. So, they are on a six-game home winning streak against Jacksonville, but also on winless season opener streak of 9 years.

That being said, though, streaks do not always tell the whole story, nor are they a good indicator of how to predict outcomes. I bring those streaks up, however, because there will always come a time when the streak ends, and for the Colts, only one of those streaks will come to an end on Sunday.

Before I dive into any predictions, I want to highlight some aspects surrounding both teams that will heavily influence the way in which this game will play out.

The Running Game

Coach Steichen mentioned that the Colts will utilize the run game in a “running back by committee” system. In an interview, Steichen mentioned that it will be “Whoever’s got the hot hand… let them ride a little bit”. This method could very well be a blueprint for some short term success. Obviously, it is within a team’s best interest to have a true #1 at the position, but if the Colts believe that they have talent all through their running back depth, having that talent utilized in different members could be a tool to throw off the defense.

Let’s also keep in mind the versatility within the running back position – pass blocking, catching, and running. Having a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, the running backs will certainly need to step up and make plays inside and outside the numbers.

The Secondary

This area is the most crucial going into Sunday as only two corners (out of the six) have extensive game experience – Kenny Moore II and Dallis Flowers. The safeties should be able to hold their own led by Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas II, but with the talent of receivers that the Jaguars will have, this secondary will be tested on every series.

Last year, the Jaguars averaged a 9th best 23.9 points per game and the Colts defense last year, gave up 25.1 points per game, which was among the worst. For this secondary, the numbers are certainly not in the Colts favor. If they have any hope of winning this home opener, the secondary will need to eliminate big plays, force fourth downs, and create turnovers. That being said, with how much better the Jags got with their receivers (gaining Calvin Ridley) and how much worse the Colts got on defense (losing Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers) this matchup will be the first of many tests this season. The main thing, though, is how this young secondary can stay unified and grow better together.

The Quarterback

Naturally, Anthony Richardson will be a key factor in the outcome of this game. He showed a lot of promise in the preseason with what he is capable of, but he has not played against a team’s 1-team defense in a game yet. The Jaguars will be his first test and by the numbers, they are coming off a modest 2022 season. While the Jaguars have some holes in their secondary, it will be the running game and the use of Richardson’s legs that will help this offense sustain drives and make plays in the red zone.

It is certain that the Colts will try and keep the Jaguar offense off the field as much as possible and the only way to do that is to keep drives alive and run the ball. Both are tools that Shane Steichen utilized last year with the Philadelphia Eagles offense, but the only way this tactic can be truly effective is if the team finishes drives with touchdowns.

Bottom Line

The Colts are facing a bad matchup with Jacksonville. Defensive Coordinator, Gus Bradley stated that this game is going to be a “test” and of that, there is no question. As already mentioned this young and inexperienced Colts secondary is going up against a very respectable and talented Jaguar receiving core with Trevor Lawrence, whom experts are predicting to be in the conversation with patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow this year.

If anything, it will come down to whether the Colts can stop the Jaguar’s offense or not. Will they be able to create turnovers? Will they be able to make key stops in the red zone? Will they be able to force field goals? If the answer is no on these, then this game will be an absolute blow out, but if the defense can step up and make room for Richardson and company to settle in, this game will be very interesting.

As amazing as it would be to see an upset on opening day, I do not believe the Colts are ready to take that leap. This game will be within striking distance going into the fourth quarter, but Jacksonville will ultimately prevail by two scores. We will see flashes of brilliance from Richardson, but also rookie mistakes. We will see the inexperience in the secondary and ultimately it will come down to the young corners struggling to keep up with the Jaguar receivers.

Week 1 Prediction: